Fraser’s Land buying forecast

As of mid-2025, the UK land buying forecast points toward a stable but selective market, with greenfield values holding steady and brownfield sites facing ongoing challenges. This is influenced by a better-supplied market due to planning policy changes, continued economic uncertainty and varying buyer behaviour among developers.

Overall, the residential development land market is in a period of stabilisation, but different site types exhibit varying conditions.

After a period of fluctuation, greenfield land values have stabilised. In the second quarter of 2025, values saw a slight dip of -0.2%, but annual growth remains positive at 0.6%.

Urban brownfield sites face significant viability issues due to mounting build costs and new building safety regulations. This has led to a weaker market and fewer transactions for high-density schemes, especially in London.

Major housebuilders are actively acquiring strategic land, particularly “greybelt” sites, to build long-term pipelines. This contrasts with smaller and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), many of which are more cautious and focused on building out their existing portfolios.

Revisions to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) in December 2024 have increased the number of sites coming to market, giving developers more choice. This has allowed buyers to be more selective, focusing on high-quality, straightforward sites in prime locations.

The agricultural land market remains resilient but is also becoming more selective, with a widening gap between premium and average land prices.

While average farmland values have remained stable through 2024 and early 2025, significant variability exists based on location and specific attributes.

Persistent economic turbulence and a finite supply continue to make land an attractive, tangible asset. Environmentally-motivated buyers and land promoters competing for strategic parcels are key drivers of demand.

Some reports indicate a higher level of farmland coming to market in 2025 compared to 2024, partly driven by farmers releasing capital for business restructuring. However, the total increase in supply is not expected to significantly shift the overall demand/supply balance.

Competition is strongest for well-equipped farms with scale and sites that offer natural capital opportunities, such as environmental enhancements. Meanwhile, less desirable land may require price adjustments or longer marketing periods to secure a buyer.

New planning policies are prompting more sites to come forward, while changes to stamp duty and affordable housing funding create both volatility and new incentives for development.

Ongoing inflation in construction materials continues to challenge the financial viability of many projects, especially for high-density and brownfield developments, as well as the adoption of CIL in many councils.

There remains an undersupply of housing in the UK, ensuring consistent long-term demand for development land.

The introduction of Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG) requirements and the demand for natural capital projects are increasingly influencing land values, particularly for lower-quality pasture.